The calculation of risks associated with hydrocarbon loss of containment incidents is a problem, which has been analyzed using models of varying complexity. There are many parameters to take into account and it has been usual to simplify the analysis in order to make the problem amenable to solution in spreadsheet models. In doing so, some resolution is lost and the solution becomes less accurate.

To examine this issue, this paper considers the range of parameters which may have to be varied in order to carry out an analysis which accounts for the very large number of combinations and undertakes a detailed consequence analysis for each.

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