Report: Asia to lead as refinery industry projected to surge to more than 100mbd by 2020

The global refinery industry is forecasted to increase at a robust growth rate of 16.7% by 2020, growing to 115.3 million barrels a day (mbd) from 98.8mbd in 2016, says a GlobalData report.

Titled ‘H2 2016 Global Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook for Refineries – Projects Stalling Slow Momentum for New Build Refining Capacity’, the report states that Asia will dominate the refinery industry with the highest capex of $144.9bn on planned refineries.

The region is predicted to add a crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity of 5.47mbd by 2020. Africa will be the second leading region in terms of capex spending at $105.4bn and will add a CDU capacity of 3.47mbd in the next four years.

A total of $80.2bn is expected to be invested on planned refineries in the Middle East, resulting in an increase by 3.706mbd in the region’s CDU.

The erstwhile Soviet Union will invest $36.5bn by 2020 into planned refineries including Nakhodka, Moscow II and Mangistau, in order to add 918,000bod to its total CDU capacity.

The highest CDU capacity growth over the next four years is predicted to occur in China and Nigeria, with both the countries planning to spend a combined sum of $84bn by 2020 to increase their CDU capacity by 3.163mbd.

Venezuela and Colombia are the only two South American countries with planned refinery construction over the next four years. Venezuela will construct the Jose and Barinas refinery, while Colombia will develop the Meta refinery.

According to the GlobalData report, the most significant planned refineries in terms of capex include Nakhodka ($24bn), Okporoma ($15bn), Shanghai II ($15bn) and Pengerang ($14.4bn), while Merapoh (800mbd), Lagos I (650mbd) and Al-Zour (615mbd) are the leading refineries in terms of capacity.