Project expansions account for majority of upcoming projects in the Canadian oil sands

Figure 1: Key planned project starts by year. Source: GlobalData Upstream Analytics

GlobalData’s latest upstream report, ‘H1 2017 Production and Capital Expenditure Outlook for Key Planned Upstream Projects for Canadian Oil Sands – Project Expansions Account for Majority of Upcoming Projects’, indicates that the majority of planned upcoming projects in the Canadian oil sands are expansions of the existing projects. Around 17 announced and planned oil sands projects are expected to start by 2025. Of them, 11 projects are expansions of existing projects.

GlobalData’s upstream research indicates that the key planned projects are expected to contribute around 923,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed) of liquids production in 2025. Of this, 97 mboed is expected to be contributed by Cenovus Energy, one of the leading companies in terms of liquids production. Among all the planned projects, Fort Hills operated by Suncor Energy is expected to have the highest liquids production of 161 mboed in 2025.

Total liquids production from the Canadian oil sands is expected increase from 2,388 mboed in 2017 to 3,091 mboed in 2025, through 59 planned and producing projects.

In terms of the number of planned project starts by 2025, the report indicates that Cenovus Energy leads among operators with six projects. Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil follow with two projects each.

The report also says that the key planned projects are expected to come online with a total capital expenditure of $148bn, with $83bn expected to be spent in the outlook period. Among all the planned and announced projects, Fort Hills (Suncor Energy Inc.) and Kearl Oil Sands Project Phase 3 (Imperial Oil Limited) have the most project capex of $27.7bn and $20.1bn respectively.

For the full report, click here.