China and Nigeria drive global refinery capacity additions and capex

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Semi-Annual Global Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook for Refineries – Developing Countries Drive Global Capacity Additions and Capital Spending’ states that global crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity is expected to register strong growth of 16.7% over the next four years, increasing from 101 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 2018 to 117mmbd by 2022. Among regions, Asia is expected to have the highest planned and announced CDU capacity of 6.8mmbd in 2022, followed by Africa with 3.3mmbd.

In terms of global capital spending, Asia leads again with a capital expenditure (capex) of $254bn proposed for planned and announced projects up to 2022. Africa and the Middle East follow with $117bn and $88bn, respectively.

Among countries, China, Nigeria, and India lead with most planned and announced CDU capacity additions and capital spending by 2022. China is expected to add 3,100 thousand barrels per day (mbd) of CDU capacity through 10 refineries, and is expected to have capex of $54.6bn on new build refineries by 2022.

Nigeria is expected to add 2,106mbd of CDU capacity through 25 refineries by 2022. The country is also expected to spend $49.3bn in the next four years on the new build refineries. India is expected to witness the addition of 1,280mbd of CDU capacity by 2022, and capex of $72bn is expected to be spent over the next four years.

Planned and announced refinery CDU capacity additions by key countries, 2018–2022

Source: Downstream Analytics                                                                                                                                         © GlobalData

In terms of planned refineries, the Dayushan Island refinery in China and the Ratnagiri refinery in India leads in CDU capacity additions by 2022, each with 800mbd, followed by the Lagos I refinery in Nigeria with a CDU capacity addition of 650mbd.

Kuwait Petroleum, Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Dangote and China Petrochemical are the key companies in terms of CDU capacity additions during the outlook period.

 

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