Climate change projections not altered due to shale gas discoveries

A study by two Duke University researchers has found that the switch from coal to natural gas is likely to offset the emissions from abundant shale gas discoveries.

Abundant inexpensive natural gas will reduce consumption of other energy sources. The net effect on the climate will rely on whether the greenhouse emissions from natural gas are lower or higher than emissions avoided by reducing the use of less clean coal.

The research was conducted by Duke University Energy Initiative director Richard Newell and associate in research Daniel Raimi.

Newell said: "Over the range of scenarios that we examine, abundant natural gas by itself is neither a climate hero nor a climate villain."

Raimi said that so far increased natural gas has mostly taken the place of coal, but looking forward there also may be increased consumption for sectors such as industry, as well as some degree of displacement of zero-emission sources such as renewables and nuclear.

"The net effect on US greenhouse gas emissions appears likely to be small in the absence of policies specifically directed at greenhouse gas mitigation," Raimi added.

The research was based on modeling two hypothetical futures which include natural gas production and prices following a reference case scenario and increased shale gas production reducing prices and encouraging more consumption. It also account for a range of methane emission scenarios, ranging from 25% below to 50% above the levels estimated by the US Environmental Production Agency.